Braves' trip continues with stop in Arizona
Baseball Betting Lines
06/07/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves cooled off a bit out West at the start
of their 11-game road trip. A trip to Arizona to facing the struggling
Diamondbacks should be enough to get them rolling again.
National League East-leading Atlanta kicks off a four-game series tonight at
Chase Field against Arizona, which hopes it has turned the corner since its
horrid 10-game losing streak.
The Braves kicked off their road trip with four games versus the Los Angeles Dodgers and took Thursday's opener to stretch their winning streak to nine
games. However, they then lost two of the next three versus Los Angeles,
including Sunday's 5-4, 11-inning defeat.
Atlanta's Martin Prado went 3-for-6 with a homer to extend his hitting streak
to 11 games, while Brian McCann also went deep for the Braves. Prado is
hitting .404 (21-for-52) with seven RBI and 12 runs scored over his run.
Tim Hudson gave up four runs -- three earned -- over seven-plus frames, while
Jesse Chavez allowed the winning run in the 11th inning after the Braves, who
are still 20-6 since May 10, left 11 men on base.
"We had the lead but couldn't keep it," said Braves manager Bobby Cox. "We had
100 opportunities to win the game, a lot more than they did, but we couldn't
get the big hit."
Atlanta owns a two-game edge over second-place Philadelphia in the NL East
standings and is likely to be without Chipper Jones for a fifth straight
contest tonight due to a right finger injury.
The Braves might not need Jones, considering the way they have played against
Arizona as of late. They have won five of their last seven overall meetings
with Arizona and six of the last nine played between the teams at Chase Field.
The Diamondbacks notched an 11-1 win at Atlanta on May 15 in the middle set of
a three-game set, but the Braves responded with a 13-1 rout the following day
to take the series victory.
Dan Haren suffered the loss on that day for Arizona, allowing seven runs --
six earned -- over a season-low 4 1/3 innings. He fell to 3-2 with a 6.44
earned run average lifetime against the Braves and will seek some revenge
tonight.
Haren is just 5-4 with a 4.83 ERA this year, but he might have turned a corner
last time out. After going 1-3 over his previous four starts with a 7.92 ERA
and 10 homers allowed, he pitched eight shutout innings on Tuesday versus the
Dodgers, working around seven hits without a walk and seven strikeouts.
"Every pitch I threw was 100 percent effort. I felt good. I'm starting to feel
like I did in the past," said Haren after tossing a career-high 126 pitches.
The 29-year-old righty did not factor into the decision versus Los Angeles, a
game his club lost 1-0 in extra innings, and he faces a Braves starter tonight
in Derek Lowe that has won three straight times.
Lowe, who turned 37 last Tuesday, is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA over his last five
starts since allowing seven runs in a loss to the Phillies on May 7. He got
his revenge on Philadelphia Wednesday, limiting the club to a run on six hits
over a season-high eight innings while striking out a season-best seven
batters.
The right-hander improved to 8-4 with a 4.44 ERA on the season and is 6-8 with
a 3.68 ERA in 18 career starts versus Arizona.
The Diamondbacks will try to snap Lowe's win streak one day after a tough 3-2
loss to Colorado and Ubaldo Jimenez in the finale of a three-game series.
Arizona managed just Conor Jackson's two-run homer in the eighth inning,
snapping a 21-inning scoreless drought versus Jimenez while ending the
hurler's personal consecutive scoreless-innings run at 33.
Arizona nearly got to Jimenez in the first inning, loading the bases on an
error, walk and single. However, Chris Young hit into an inning-ending
double play.
"We made a run at the end, but we missed a few opportunities early, especially
in the first," Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch said. "We were a foot away from
not only scoring first, but also making Jimenez get to maybe 40 pitches in the
first inning, which changes the entire complexion of the game."
Arizona, which had won the first two contests of the series to snap its losing
streak at 10 straight, set a club record with its seventh one-run game in a
row as it opened a 10-game homestand.
Shortstop Stephen Drew did not play for Arizona on Sunday after suffering a
right finger injury the previous night and is day-to-day.
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i
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The Phillies swept Milwa
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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