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Devils shoot for another win in Calgary

Hockey Betting Lines

03/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Devils got off to the kind of start they wanted following the Olympic break. Their finish, though, could use some work.

New Jersey hasn't won consecutive games in nearly two months, a feat it will try to accomplish tonight in a matchup with Calgary at Pengrowth Saddledome as the Flames try to beat the Devils at home for the first time in exactly seven years.

The Devils were 5-10-2 over their final 17 games before the break and faced a stiff challenge in their first game back on the ice Tuesday. Against San Jose, New Jersey scored the game's first four goals, getting second-period tallies from Ilya Kovalchuk, Dainius Zubrus and Mark Fraser, and Martin Brodeur carried a shutout into the third period.

Travis Zajac then lit the lamp in the third frame before the Sharks scored three times in a 2:46 span midway through the period. Brodeur and company held on for a 4-3 win though, with the Devils netminder making 17 saves in helping his team snap a six-game road losing streak.

Kovalchuk and Zajac both added assists for the Devils, who are now a point behind the Penguins for first place in the Atlantic Division after Pittsburgh beat the New York Rangers last night.

"This last 20-game stretch for us, we feel it's really going to dictate how we're feeling and what kind of team we're going to be heading into the playoffs," Fraser said. "So definitely, it's a bonus for us to start it off on a positive."

New Jersey added depth for its stretch run in acquiring defenseman Martin Skoula from Toronto on Wednesday for a 2010 fifth-round draft pick. Skoula is expected to be with the club tonight.

The Flames were much more active at the deadline. After having already acquired Ian White, Jamal Mayers, Matt Stajan, Niklas Hagman, Chris Higgins and Ales Kotalik in deals that sent Dion Phaneuf and Olli Jokinen out of town before the Olympics, Calgary completed its first trade ever with Edmonton in getting defenseman Steve Staios.

That wasn't the last of the 2009-10 overhaul of the Flames, as they swapped backup netminders with Anaheim, getting Vesa Toskala for Curtis McElhinney, while also acquiring defenseman Andy Delmore from Detroit for forward Riley Armstrong. Finally, Calgary traded forward Dustin Boyd to Nashville for a draft pick.

Staios did not play in Wednesday night's 4-0 loss to Minnesota, Calgary's fourth setback in its last five games. Miikka Kiprusoff turned aside 17-of-21 shots for the Flames.

"I am not pleased with the way we played tonight," Flames coach Brent Sutter said. "It's unacceptable; every game is such a big game for us. It was like a river hockey game out there. I don't know what to say, I am surprised by what took place here tonight. We need to have guys pay a bigger price."

The Flames, who fell to 1-2-0 on a four-game homestand and have lost nine of their last 12 at home, trail Detroit by a point for the eighth spot in the Western Conference.

Calgary will try to defeat New Jersey at home for the first time since March 5, 2003 though the clubs have met in Alberta just once since. The Devils earned a 1-0 overtime triumph in Calgary on December 23, 2007 and then picked up their second straight victory in the series with a 3-2 home victory on March 10 of last season.


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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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