Jays, Marcum hope to avoid brooms in Cleveland
Baseball Betting Lines
07/01/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Blue Jays were left without an ace when they traded Roy
Halladay this past offseason, but Shaun Marcum has wasted little time claiming
ownership of the title.
Marcum will try to prevent his Toronto squad from getting swept in four games
by Cleveland for the first time in nearly 25 years and deny the Indians a
season-best fifth straight victory in this afternoon's finale at Progressive
Field.
The right-handed Marcum missed all of 2009 while recovering from Tommy John
surgery, but is 7-3 with a 3.14 earned run average in 16 starts so far this
season. A 12-game winner in 2007, Marcum beat the Phillies with six innings of
one-run ball, striking out six while improving to 2-0 over his last three
starts with a 2.00 ERA.
"The pitch that was getting him strikeouts and groundouts when we needed it,
or a fly ball, was his changeup," Toronto catcher John Buck told Toronto's
website. "It was kind of just the equalizer that we could always go to. It was
really dropping off the table well."
The 28-year-old has never beaten the Indians, going 0-2 with a 4.38 ERA in
six games (four starts) against them.
Toronto hasn't beaten anybody since Marcum's last start as it dropped its
finale with Philadelphia on Sunday before dropping the first three tests of
this series, plating just a single run in two of them. The Blue Jays have now
lost eight of their last 10 to fall eight games back of the Yankees for first
place in the American League East.
Nick Green's RBI infield single in the seventh inning accounted for Toronto's
only offense as Cleveland starter Aaron Laffey threw six-plus innings of one-
run ball.
"It's just baseball. It's just the way it goes sometimes," said Jays manager
Cito Gaston. "Last year, it was the other way around. This year, it seems to
be that guys that are struggling, they seem to be up there with guys on base.
That's just the way it is with baseball."
Toronto is hitting just .221 over its last 10 games, averaging just 2.8 runs
per game in that span. The Blue Jays also haven't homered in three straight
games for the first time this season.
"I was on a better page -- me and [catcher Carlos Santana]," Laffey said. "We
did a great job of changing speeds and calling good pitches in good counts,
and I was able to execute for the most part."
While the Blue Jays' bats are struggling, the Indians have a host of players
riding hot streaks. Matt LaPorta homered for the second straight game in last
night's victory, while Shin-Soo Choo connected on his fifth homer in eight
games. Santana added two hits and an RBI, giving him a .345 average over his
first 18 MLB games.
Cleveland, which lost 11 of 12 before its current four-game win streak, was
swept at home by Toronto in early May, but tonight the Indians can sweep the
Blue Jays in four games for the first time since doing so at home from Aug.
28-31, 1995.
For that to happen, they will need Justin Masterson to pitch better than he
has as of late. The 25-year-old is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in his last three
starts, including a loss to Cincinnati on Saturday in which he allowed six
runs on six hits and four walks over five-plus innings.
Masterson fell to 2-7 on the season with a 5.21 ERA and will make his first
career start versus the Blue Jays tonight. The right-hander has faced them
seven times in relief, pitching to a 2.89 ERA over 9 1/3 total innings.
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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends
We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS. Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned. For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go. As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190). Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet. For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction. On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later. Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick. Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com
New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors
Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season.
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times.
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season.
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS.
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”. With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit. Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.
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Pacific-10 Conference odds
Teams that should be in: Stanford
 Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.
Should be in:
Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.
| Southeastern Conference odds |
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State
 It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.
Work left to do:
Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.
Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.
Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.
Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile. |
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