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Division leaders clash in Dallas as Mavs host Magic

Basketball Betting Lines

04/01/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two of the NBA's top teams headline the April Fool's Day marquee on Thursday night in Big D as the Southeast Division-leading Orlando Magic visit the Southwest frontrunners, the Dallas Mavericks.

The Magic, who will finish a quick two-day tour of Texas tomorrow in San Antonio, are currently the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt, four games clear of division rival Atlanta with just eight games remaining in the regular season.

Despite its success against the rest of the league, Orlando has had quite a bit of trouble with the Mavs recently and had dropped six of the past seven games in the series, including a 95-85 setback in central Florida back in February. A win tonight would give Dallas a home-and-home sweep of the season series for the third time in four years.

Most recently, the Magic cut down another Western Conference contender at Amway Arena. J.J. Redick replaced an injured Vince Carter in the first quarter last Sunday and finished with 23 points, including seven in a vital fourth quarter, as Orlando beat Denver, 103-97, for its 13th win in 15 games.

Ryan Anderson added 19 points in a reserve role for the Magic, who have a stranglehold on second place in the East but are a distant 6 1/2 games behind Cleveland for the top seed.

Dwight Howard totaled 18 points and 11 rebounds for the Magic, who have won nine of their last 10 home games.

"I think we've been doing an excellent job the last couple of games of being aggressive on both ends, really trying to focus on the defense," Howard said. "Guys like J.J. and Ryan, and Matt (Barnes) really stepped up."

Carter suffered a sprained right big toe when he collided with Denver's Arron Afflalo on a pick-and-roll play just 95 seconds into the game and the former All-Star is considered day-to-day.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, are coming off a thrilling overtime win over Memphis on Wednesday. Dirk Nowitzki scored 22 of his 28 points after halftime in that one to guide Dallas to a 106-102 triumph.

Jason Terry netted 29 points for the Mavericks, who posted their 10th straight season with at least 50 victories.

San Antonio and the Los Angeles Lakers are the only other franchises to compile 10 straight 50-win seasons since the NBA went to an 82-game schedule in the 1967-68 season.

Jason Kidd chipped in 12 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists last night, as the Mavs continue to hold onto the second spot in the West, one-half game ahead of Utah.

Caron Butler contributed 11 points and 13 rebounds for Dallas, which rallied from a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win its third straight game.

"I think our defense was phenomenal in the second half," Nowitzki said. "Energy was great, but we needed a little spark offensively and I was able to get going. That was great."


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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.